diff --git a/WEBSITE_OUTPUT/data/bias_ushouse-elections.csv b/WEBSITE_OUTPUT/data/bias_ushouse-elections.csv index 1d0d0aee..c6cd40ac 100644 --- a/WEBSITE_OUTPUT/data/bias_ushouse-elections.csv +++ b/WEBSITE_OUTPUT/data/bias_ushouse-elections.csv @@ -1,1401 +1,2651 @@ -cycle,stateabrev,newplan,EG,seats,url,districts -1972,AK,yes,-0.625,1,, -1972,AL,yes,-0.030,7,, -1972,AR,yes,0.235,4,, -1972,AZ,yes,-0.207,4,, -1972,CA,yes,-0.006,43,, -1972,CO,yes,-0.043,5,, -1972,CT,yes,0.025,6,, -1972,DE,yes,-0.242,1,, -1972,FL,yes,0.194,15,, -1972,GA,yes,0.338,10,, -1972,HI,yes,0.382,2,, -1972,IA,yes,-0.033,6,, -1972,ID,yes,-0.231,2,, -1972,IL,yes,-0.065,24,, -1972,IN,yes,-0.060,11,, -1972,KS,yes,0.056,5,, -1972,KY,yes,0.208,7,, -1972,LA,yes,0.129,8,, -1972,MA,yes,0.101,12,, -1972,MD,yes,-0.040,8,, -1972,ME,yes,-0.057,2,, -1972,MI,yes,-0.025,19,, -1972,MN,yes,-0.082,8,, -1972,MO,yes,0.206,10,, -1972,MS,yes,0.024,5,, -1972,MT,yes,-0.210,2,, -1972,NC,yes,0.114,11,, -1972,ND,yes,-0.043,1,, -1972,NE,yes,-0.181,3,, -1972,NH,yes,-0.095,2,, -1972,NJ,yes,0.042,15,, -1972,NM,yes,-0.126,2,, -1972,NV,yes,-0.457,1,, -1972,NY,yes,0.053,39,, -1972,OH,yes,-0.132,23,, -1972,OK,yes,0.194,6,, -1972,OR,yes,0.048,4,, -1972,PA,yes,0.084,25,, -1972,RI,yes,0.246,2,, -1972,SC,yes,0.023,6,, -1972,SD,yes,-0.062,2,, -1972,TN,yes,-0.101,8,, -1972,TX,yes,0.131,24,, -1972,UT,yes,0.378,2,, -1972,VA,yes,-0.113,10,, -1972,VT,yes,-0.200,1,, -1972,WA,yes,0.038,7,, -1972,WI,yes,-0.082,9,, -1972,WV,yes,0.318,4,, -1972,WY,yes,0.466,1,, -1974,AK,,-0.423,1,, -1974,AL,,-0.047,7,, -1974,AR,,-0.038,4,, -1974,AZ,,-0.256,4,, -1974,CA,yes,0.019,43,, -1974,CO,,0.037,5,, -1974,CT,,-0.003,6,, -1974,DE,,-0.307,1,, -1974,FL,,0.072,15,, -1974,GA,,0.165,10,, -1974,HI,,0.278,2,, -1974,IA,,0.250,6,, -1974,ID,,-0.360,2,, -1974,IL,,-0.084,24,, -1974,IN,,0.210,11,, -1974,KS,,-0.175,5,, -1974,KY,,-0.077,7,, -1974,LA,,-0.011,8,, -1974,MA,,0.077,12,, -1974,MD,,-0.083,8,, -1974,ME,,-0.298,2,, -1974,MI,,-0.048,19,, -1974,MN,,-0.053,8,, -1974,MO,,0.058,10,, -1974,MS,,0.077,5,, -1974,MT,,0.328,2,, -1974,NC,,0.091,11,, -1974,ND,,-0.386,1,, -1974,NE,,-0.445,3,, -1974,NH,,0.118,2,, -1974,NJ,,0.035,15,, -1974,NM,,-0.041,2,, -1974,NV,,0.290,1,, -1974,NY,yes,0.046,39,, -1974,OH,,-0.149,23,, -1974,OK,,0.084,6,, -1974,OR,,0.218,4,, -1974,PA,,-0.082,25,, -1974,RI,,-0.014,2,, -1974,SC,,0.161,6,, -1974,SD,,-0.274,2,, -1974,TN,,0.094,8,, -1974,TX,yes,0.050,24,, -1974,UT,,0.329,2,, -1974,VA,,-0.048,10,, -1974,VT,,-0.337,1,, -1974,WA,,0.179,7,, -1974,WI,,0.084,9,, -1974,WV,,0.176,4,, -1974,WY,,0.406,1,, -1976,AK,,-0.080,1,, -1976,AL,,-0.126,7,, -1976,AR,,-0.033,4,, -1976,AZ,,-0.022,4,, -1976,CA,,0.052,43,, -1976,CO,,0.181,5,, -1976,CT,,0.144,6,, -1976,DE,,-0.461,1,, -1976,FL,,0.037,15,, -1976,GA,,0.150,10,, -1976,HI,,0.093,2,, -1976,IA,,0.019,6,, -1976,ID,,-0.447,2,, -1976,IL,,-0.031,24,, -1976,IN,,0.146,11,, -1976,KS,,0.120,5,, -1976,KY,,0.038,7,, -1976,LA,,0.006,8,, -1976,MA,,0.079,12,, -1976,MD,,-0.105,8,, -1976,ME,,-0.149,2,, -1976,MI,,-0.037,19,, -1976,MN,,-0.111,8,, -1976,MO,,0.158,10,, -1976,MS,,-0.005,5,, -1976,MT,,-0.125,2,, -1976,NC,,0.098,11,, -1976,ND,,-0.231,1,, -1976,NE,,0.126,3,, -1976,NH,,-0.076,2,, -1976,NJ,,0.117,15,, -1976,NM,,0.073,2,, -1976,NV,,-0.229,1,, -1976,NY,,0.034,39,, -1976,OH,,-0.024,23,, -1976,OK,,0.039,6,, -1976,OR,,0.208,4,, -1976,PA,,0.066,25,, -1976,RI,,0.090,2,, -1976,SC,,0.130,6,, -1976,SD,,0.006,2,, -1976,TN,yes,0.021,8,, -1976,TX,,0.188,24,, -1976,UT,,-0.029,2,, -1976,VA,,-0.090,10,, -1976,VT,,-0.129,1,, -1976,WA,,0.049,7,, -1976,WI,,0.109,9,, -1976,WV,,0.152,4,, -1976,WY,,0.371,1,, -1978,AK,,-0.390,1,, -1978,AL,,-0.115,7,, -1978,AR,,0.018,4,, -1978,AZ,,0.113,4,, -1978,CA,,0.043,43,, -1978,CO,,0.143,5,, -1978,CT,,0.167,6,, -1978,DE,,-0.329,1,, -1978,FL,,0.128,15,, -1978,GA,,-0.005,10,, -1978,HI,,-0.169,2,, -1978,IA,,0.004,6,, -1978,ID,,-0.327,2,, -1978,IL,,-0.065,24,, -1978,IN,,0.087,11,, -1978,KS,,-0.192,5,, -1978,KY,,0.042,7,, -1978,LA,,0.252,8,, -1978,MA,,0.078,12,, -1978,MD,,0.004,8,, -1978,ME,,-0.306,2,, -1978,MI,,0.042,19,, -1978,MN,,0.016,8,, -1978,MO,,0.046,10,, -1978,MS,,-0.058,5,, -1978,MT,,-0.013,2,, -1978,NC,,0.152,11,, -1978,ND,,-0.130,1,, -1978,NE,,0.090,3,, -1978,NH,,0.044,2,, -1978,NJ,,0.057,15,, -1978,NM,,0.027,2,, -1978,NV,,0.002,1,, -1978,NY,,0.059,39,, -1978,OH,,0.001,23,, -1978,OK,,0.143,6,, -1978,OR,,0.203,4,, -1978,PA,,0.073,25,, -1978,RI,,0.368,2,, -1978,SC,,0.005,6,, -1978,SD,,0.059,2,, -1978,TN,,0.117,8,, -1978,TX,,0.179,24,, -1978,UT,,0.118,2,, -1978,VA,,0.031,10,, -1978,VT,,0.092,1,, -1978,WA,,0.298,7,, -1978,WI,,0.105,9,, -1978,WV,,0.262,4,, -1978,WY,,-0.327,1,, -1980,AK,,-0.018,1,, -1980,AL,,-0.053,7,, -1980,AR,,0.163,4,, -1980,AZ,,0.048,4,, -1980,CA,,0.077,43,, -1980,CO,,0.201,5,, -1980,CT,,0.125,6,, -1980,DE,,-0.255,1,, -1980,FL,,0.109,15,, -1980,GA,,0.053,10,, -1980,HI,,-0.241,2,, -1980,IA,,-0.027,6,, -1980,ID,,-0.377,2,, -1980,IL,,-0.001,24,, -1980,IN,,0.051,11,, -1980,KS,,-0.170,5,, -1980,KY,,0.030,7,, -1980,LA,,0.331,8,, -1980,MA,,0.134,12,, -1980,MD,,0.141,8,, -1980,ME,,-0.037,2,, -1980,MI,,0.067,19,, -1980,MN,,-0.082,8,, -1980,MO,,0.017,10,, -1980,MS,,0.200,5,, -1980,MT,,-0.041,2,, -1980,NC,,0.062,11,, -1980,ND,,0.357,1,, -1980,NE,,-0.041,3,, -1980,NH,,0.026,2,, -1980,NJ,,0.053,15,, -1980,NM,,-0.468,2,, -1980,NV,,0.053,1,, -1980,NY,,0.076,39,, -1980,OH,,0.058,23,, -1980,OK,,0.212,6,, -1980,OR,,0.051,4,, -1980,PA,,-0.026,25,, -1980,RI,,-0.106,2,, -1980,SC,,-0.172,6,, -1980,SD,,-0.085,2,, -1980,TN,,0.023,8,, -1980,TX,,0.224,24,, -1980,UT,,-0.295,2,, -1980,VA,,-0.147,10,, -1980,VT,,-0.025,1,, -1980,WA,,0.200,7,, -1980,WI,,0.048,9,, -1980,WV,,-0.140,4,, -1980,WY,,-0.129,1,, -1982,AK,yes,-0.077,1,, -1982,AL,yes,-0.080,7,, -1982,AR,yes,-0.047,4,, -1982,AZ,yes,0.036,5,, -1982,CA,yes,0.115,45,, -1982,CO,yes,0.039,6,, -1982,CT,yes,0.080,6,, -1982,DE,yes,0.439,1,, -1982,FL,yes,0.005,19,, -1982,GA,yes,0.045,10,, -1982,HI,yes,-0.034,2,, -1982,IA,yes,-0.053,6,, -1982,ID,yes,-0.440,2,, -1982,IL,yes,-0.067,22,, -1982,IN,yes,0.015,10,, -1982,KS,yes,-0.026,5,, -1982,KY,yes,-0.083,7,, -1982,LA,yes,0.075,8,, -1982,MA,yes,0.100,11,, -1982,MD,yes,0.014,8,, -1982,ME,yes,-0.335,2,, -1982,MI,yes,0.026,18,, -1982,MN,yes,0.022,8,, -1982,MO,yes,0.024,9,, -1982,MS,yes,0.042,5,, -1982,MT,yes,-0.076,2,, -1982,NC,yes,0.154,11,, -1982,ND,yes,0.058,1,, -1982,NE,yes,-0.140,3,, -1982,NH,yes,0.148,2,, -1982,NJ,yes,0.006,14,, -1982,NM,yes,-0.194,3,, -1982,NV,yes,0.007,2,, -1982,NY,yes,-0.005,34,, -1982,OH,yes,-0.090,21,, -1982,OK,yes,0.064,6,, -1982,OR,yes,-0.039,5,, -1982,PA,yes,0.001,23,, -1982,RI,yes,-0.050,2,, -1982,SC,yes,-0.019,6,, -1982,SD,yes,0.469,1,, -1982,TN,yes,-0.055,9,, -1982,TX,yes,0.110,27,, -1982,UT,yes,-0.337,3,, -1982,VA,yes,-0.063,10,, -1982,VT,yes,-0.002,1,, -1982,WA,yes,0.059,8,, -1982,WI,yes,-0.047,9,, -1982,WV,yes,0.242,4,, -1982,WY,yes,-0.078,1,, -1984,AK,,-0.362,1,, -1984,AL,,0.015,7,, -1984,AR,,0.284,4,, -1984,AZ,,-0.011,5,, -1984,CA,yes,0.097,45,, -1984,CO,,0.034,6,, -1984,CT,,0.066,6,, -1984,DE,,0.329,1,, -1984,FL,,0.148,19,, -1984,GA,,0.036,10,, -1984,HI,,-0.197,2,, -1984,IA,,-0.105,6,, -1984,ID,,0.186,2,, -1984,IL,,0.062,22,, -1984,IN,,0.058,10,, -1984,KS,,0.009,5,, -1984,KY,,0.027,7,, -1984,LA,,0.236,8,, -1984,MA,,0.145,11,, -1984,MD,,-0.013,8,, -1984,ME,,-0.104,2,, -1984,MI,,0.071,18,, -1984,MN,,0.044,8,, -1984,MO,,0.117,9,, -1984,MS,,0.107,5,, -1984,MT,,-0.024,2,, -1984,NC,,-0.003,11,, -1984,ND,,-0.074,1,, -1984,NE,,-0.016,3,, -1984,NH,,-0.140,2,, -1984,NJ,yes,0.059,14,, -1984,NM,,0.021,3,, -1984,NV,,0.173,2,, -1984,NY,,0.025,34,, -1984,OH,,0.085,21,, -1984,OK,,0.163,6,, -1984,OR,,0.011,5,, -1984,PA,,0.002,23,, -1984,RI,,0.000,2,, -1984,SC,,0.044,6,, -1984,SD,,0.353,1,, -1984,TN,,0.096,9,, -1984,TX,yes,0.150,27,, -1984,UT,,-0.199,3,, -1984,VA,,0.007,10,, -1984,VT,,-0.079,1,, -1984,WA,yes,0.015,8,, -1984,WI,,0.104,9,, -1984,WV,,0.281,4,, -1984,WY,,0.002,1,, -1986,AK,,-0.342,1,, -1986,AL,,-0.070,7,, -1986,AR,,0.069,4,, -1986,AZ,,-0.046,5,, -1986,CA,,0.049,45,, -1986,CO,,0.115,6,, -1986,CT,,-0.113,6,, -1986,DE,,0.172,1,, -1986,FL,,0.057,19,, -1986,GA,,-0.004,10,, -1986,HI,,-0.161,2,, -1986,IA,,-0.129,6,, -1986,ID,,0.122,2,, -1986,IL,,-0.004,22,, -1986,IN,,0.079,10,, -1986,KS,,0.021,5,, -1986,KY,,-0.062,7,, -1986,LA,,-0.066,8,, -1986,MA,,0.083,11,, -1986,MD,,-0.008,8,, -1986,ME,,0.202,2,, -1986,MI,,-0.046,18,, -1986,MN,,-0.072,8,, -1986,MO,,-0.060,9,, -1986,MS,,0.116,5,, -1986,MT,,-0.083,2,, -1986,NC,,0.095,11,, -1986,ND,,-0.027,1,, -1986,NE,,-0.209,3,, -1986,NH,,-0.202,2,, -1986,NJ,,0.036,14,, -1986,NM,,-0.094,3,, -1986,NV,,0.049,2,, -1986,NY,,0.021,34,, -1986,OH,yes,0.027,21,, -1986,OK,,-0.046,6,, -1986,OR,,-0.034,5,, -1986,PA,,-0.019,23,, -1986,RI,,0.151,2,, -1986,SC,,-0.026,6,, -1986,SD,,0.316,1,, -1986,TN,,0.065,9,, -1986,TX,,0.074,27,, -1986,UT,,-0.089,3,, -1986,VA,,0.009,10,, -1986,VT,,-0.097,1,, -1986,WA,,-0.061,8,, -1986,WI,,0.077,9,, -1986,WV,,0.126,4,, -1986,WY,,-0.111,1,, -1988,AK,,-0.247,1,, -1988,AL,,0.017,7,, -1988,AR,,-0.195,4,, -1988,AZ,,-0.015,5,, -1988,CA,,0.037,45,, -1988,CO,,0.016,6,, -1988,CT,,0.012,6,, -1988,DE,,0.150,1,, -1988,FL,,-0.059,19,, -1988,GA,,0.120,10,, -1988,HI,,-0.184,2,, -1988,IA,,-0.144,6,, -1988,ID,,0.013,2,, -1988,IL,,0.075,22,, -1988,IN,,0.165,10,, -1988,KS,,0.029,5,, -1988,KY,,0.110,7,, -1988,LA,,0.081,8,, -1988,MA,,0.079,11,, -1988,MD,,0.063,8,, -1988,ME,,0.004,2,, -1988,MI,,0.048,18,, -1988,MN,,-0.048,8,, -1988,MO,,-0.060,9,, -1988,MS,,0.173,5,, -1988,MT,,-0.059,2,, -1988,NC,,0.162,11,, -1988,ND,,0.069,1,, -1988,NE,,0.133,3,, -1988,NH,,-0.324,2,, -1988,NJ,,0.118,14,, -1988,NM,,-0.222,3,, -1988,NV,,-0.052,2,, -1988,NY,,0.061,34,, -1988,OH,,0.001,21,, -1988,OK,,-0.041,6,, -1988,OR,,-0.140,5,, -1988,PA,,0.015,23,, -1988,RI,,-0.218,2,, -1988,SC,,0.055,6,, -1988,SD,,0.065,1,, -1988,TN,,0.111,9,, -1988,TX,,0.153,27,, -1988,UT,,-0.032,3,, -1988,VA,,0.093,10,, -1988,VT,,-0.128,1,, -1988,WA,,0.039,8,, -1988,WI,,0.084,9,, -1988,WV,,0.116,4,, -1988,WY,,-0.146,1,, -1990,AK,,-0.462,1,, -1990,AL,,-0.050,7,, -1990,AR,,0.140,4,, -1990,AZ,,-0.130,5,, -1990,CA,,0.028,45,, -1990,CO,,-0.016,6,, -1990,CT,,0.055,6,, -1990,DE,,0.166,1,, -1990,FL,,-0.023,19,, -1990,GA,,0.173,10,, -1990,HI,,0.206,2,, -1990,IA,,-0.094,6,, -1990,ID,,0.336,2,, -1990,IL,,0.042,22,, -1990,IN,,0.202,10,, -1990,KS,,-0.108,5,, -1990,KY,,0.080,7,, -1990,LA,,-0.040,8,, -1990,MA,,0.280,11,, -1990,MD,,0.080,8,, -1990,ME,,-0.100,2,, -1990,MI,,0.047,18,, -1990,MN,,0.078,8,, -1990,MO,,0.090,9,, -1990,MS,,-0.045,5,, -1990,MT,,0.010,2,, -1990,NC,,0.066,11,, -1990,ND,,0.196,1,, -1990,NE,,-0.111,3,, -1990,NH,,0.027,2,, -1990,NJ,,0.175,14,, -1990,NM,,-0.128,3,, -1990,NV,,0.023,2,, -1990,NY,,0.042,34,, -1990,OH,,-0.020,21,, -1990,OK,,-0.045,6,, -1990,OR,,0.086,5,, -1990,PA,,-0.072,23,, -1990,RI,,-0.049,2,, -1990,SC,,0.058,6,, -1990,SD,,0.149,1,, -1990,TN,,0.048,9,, -1990,TX,,0.176,27,, -1990,UT,,0.066,3,, -1990,VA,,0.107,10,, -1990,VT,,0,1,, -1990,WA,,0.048,8,, -1990,WI,,-0.096,9,, -1990,WV,,0.258,4,, -1990,WY,,-0.398,1,, -1992,AK,yes,-0.456,1,, -1992,AL,yes,-0.093,7,, -1992,AR,yes,-0.191,4,, -1992,AZ,yes,0.119,6,, -1992,CA,yes,-0.011,52,, -1992,CO,yes,-0.121,6,, -1992,CT,yes,0.164,6,, -1992,DE,yes,-0.368,1,, -1992,FL,yes,-0.028,23,, -1992,GA,yes,0.039,11,, -1992,HI,yes,-0.023,2,, -1992,IA,yes,-0.238,5,, -1992,ID,yes,0.018,2,, -1992,IL,yes,-0.022,20,, -1992,IN,yes,0.106,10,, -1992,KS,yes,0.096,4,, -1992,KY,yes,0.106,6,, -1992,LA,yes,0.027,7,, -1992,MA,yes,0.052,10,, -1992,MD,yes,-0.063,8,, -1992,ME,yes,-0.133,2,, -1992,MI,yes,0.075,16,, -1992,MN,yes,0.133,8,, -1992,MO,yes,0.066,9,, -1992,MS,yes,0.080,5,, -1992,MT,yes,0.464,1,, -1992,NC,yes,0.135,12,, -1992,ND,yes,0.319,1,, -1992,NE,yes,0.036,3,, -1992,NH,yes,-0.079,2,, -1992,NJ,yes,0.091,13,, -1992,NM,yes,-0.157,3,, -1992,NV,yes,-0.069,2,, -1992,NY,yes,0.043,31,, -1992,OH,yes,0.011,19,, -1992,OK,yes,-0.038,6,, -1992,OR,yes,0.103,5,, -1992,PA,yes,-0.010,21,, -1992,RI,yes,-0.017,2,, -1992,SC,yes,-0.039,6,, -1992,SD,yes,0.060,1,, -1992,TN,yes,0.137,9,, -1992,TX,yes,0.186,30,, -1992,UT,yes,0.211,3,, -1992,VA,yes,0.075,11,, -1992,VT,yes,0,1,, -1992,WA,yes,0.238,9,, -1992,WI,yes,-0.031,9,, -1992,WV,yes,0.134,3,, -1992,WY,yes,-0.309,1,, -1994,AK,,-0.230,1,, -1994,AL,,0.165,7,, -1994,AR,,0.052,4,, -1994,AZ,,-0.104,6,, -1994,CA,,0.039,52,, -1994,CO,,0.098,6,, -1994,CT,,0.097,6,, -1994,DE,,-0.046,1,, -1994,FL,,0.013,23,, -1994,GA,,-0.137,11,, -1994,HI,,0.206,2,, -1994,IA,,-0.342,5,, -1994,ID,,-0.201,2,, -1994,IL,,0.047,20,, -1994,IN,,0.035,10,, -1994,KS,,-0.230,4,, -1994,KY,,0.009,6,, -1994,LA,,0.010,7,, -1994,MA,,0.060,10,, -1994,MD,,0.015,8,, -1994,ME,,-0.004,2,, -1994,MI,,0.101,16,, -1994,MN,yes,0.229,8,, -1994,MO,,0.132,9,, -1994,MS,,0.139,5,, -1994,MT,,0.429,1,, -1994,NC,,-0.038,12,, -1994,ND,,0.425,1,, -1994,NE,,-0.214,3,, -1994,NH,,-0.286,2,, -1994,NJ,,-0.005,13,, -1994,NM,,0.002,3,, -1994,NV,,-0.279,2,, -1994,NY,,0.064,31,, -1994,OH,,-0.052,19,, -1994,OK,,-0.207,6,, -1994,OR,,-0.029,5,, -1994,PA,,0.036,21,, -1994,RI,,0.275,2,, -1994,SC,,0.016,6,, -1994,SD,,0.259,1,, -1994,TN,,0.014,9,, -1994,TX,,0.184,30,, -1994,UT,,-0.089,3,, -1994,VA,yes,0.110,11,, -1994,VT,,0,1,, -1994,WA,,-0.262,9,, -1994,WI,,-0.005,9,, -1994,WV,,0.177,3,, -1994,WY,,-0.374,1,, -1996,AK,,-0.260,1,, -1996,AL,,-0.124,7,, -1996,AR,,0.084,4,, -1996,AZ,,-0.118,6,, -1996,CA,,0.018,52,, -1996,CO,,-0.001,6,, -1996,CT,,0.068,6,, -1996,DE,,-0.066,1,, -1996,FL,yes,-0.038,23,, -1996,GA,yes,-0.145,11,, -1996,HI,,0.319,2,, -1996,IA,,-0.201,5,, -1996,ID,,-0.300,2,, -1996,IL,,-0.094,20,, -1996,IN,,-0.013,10,, -1996,KS,,-0.329,4,, -1996,KY,,-0.200,6,, -1996,LA,,-0.171,7,, -1996,MA,,0.206,10,, -1996,MD,,-0.070,8,, -1996,ME,,0.215,2,, -1996,MI,,0.051,16,, -1996,MN,,0.132,8,, -1996,MO,,-0.090,9,, -1996,MS,,0.005,5,, -1996,MT,,-0.403,1,, -1996,NC,,0.082,12,, -1996,ND,,0.380,1,, -1996,NE,,-0.125,3,, -1996,NH,,-0.445,2,, -1996,NJ,,-0.021,13,, -1996,NM,,-0.519,3,, -1996,NV,,-0.320,2,, -1996,NY,,-0.042,31,, -1996,OH,,-0.014,19,, -1996,OK,,-0.246,6,, -1996,OR,,0.173,5,, -1996,PA,,-0.014,21,, -1996,RI,,0.118,2,, -1996,SC,,-0.041,6,, -1996,SD,,-0.282,1,, -1996,TN,,-0.037,9,, -1996,TX,yes,0.141,30,, -1996,UT,,-0.313,3,, -1996,VA,,0.041,11,, -1996,VT,,0,1,, -1996,WA,,-0.217,9,, -1996,WI,,0.106,9,, -1996,WV,,0.132,3,, -1996,WY,,-0.350,1,, -1998,AK,,-0.212,1,, -1998,AL,,-0.118,7,, -1998,AR,,-0.008,4,, -1998,AZ,,-0.161,6,, -1998,CA,,-0.057,52,, -1998,CO,,-0.021,6,, -1998,CT,,0.116,6,, -1998,DE,,-0.148,1,, -1998,FL,,-0.046,23,, -1998,GA,,-0.081,11,, -1998,HI,,0.128,2,, -1998,IA,,-0.149,5,, -1998,ID,,-0.406,2,, -1998,IL,,-0.057,20,, -1998,IN,,0.023,10,, -1998,KS,,-0.004,4,, -1998,KY,,-0.167,6,, -1998,LA,,-0.143,7,, -1998,MA,,0.103,10,, -1998,MD,,-0.090,8,, -1998,ME,,0.116,2,, -1998,MI,,0.082,16,, -1998,MN,,0.149,8,, -1998,MO,,0.031,9,, -1998,MS,,0.046,5,, -1998,MT,,-0.403,1,, -1998,NC,yes,-0.006,12,, -1998,ND,,0.345,1,, -1998,NE,,-0.018,3,, -1998,NH,,-0.289,2,, -1998,NJ,,0.013,13,, -1998,NM,,-0.129,3,, -1998,NV,,0.174,2,, -1998,NY,yes,0.003,31,, -1998,OH,,-0.032,19,, -1998,OK,,-0.237,6,, -1998,OR,,0.154,5,, -1998,PA,,0.018,21,, -1998,RI,,0.102,2,, -1998,SC,,-0.115,6,, -1998,SD,,0.002,1,, -1998,TN,,-0.024,9,, -1998,TX,,0.143,30,, -1998,UT,,-0.287,3,, -1998,VA,yes,0.081,11,, -1998,VT,,0,1,, -1998,WA,,-0.016,9,, -1998,WI,,0.019,9,, -1998,WV,,0.041,3,, -1998,WY,,-0.302,1,, -2000,AK,,0.116,1,, -2000,AL,,-0.078,7,, -2000,AR,,0.251,4,, -2000,AZ,,-0.123,6,, -2000,CA,,0.010,52,, -2000,CO,,-0.038,6,, -2000,CT,,-0.080,6,, -2000,DE,,-0.126,1,, -2000,FL,,-0.081,23,, -2000,GA,,-0.027,11,, -2000,HI,,0.168,2,, -2000,IA,,-0.148,5,, -2000,ID,,-0.094,2,, -2000,IL,,-0.074,20,, -2000,IN,,-0.011,10,, -2000,KS,,-0.006,4,, -2000,KY,,-0.125,6,, -2000,LA,,0.004,7,, -2000,MA,,0.011,10,, -2000,MD,,-0.107,8,, -2000,ME,,0.150,2,, -2000,MI,,-0.034,16,, -2000,MN,,0.053,8,, -2000,MO,,-0.052,9,, -2000,MS,,0.079,5,, -2000,MT,,-0.447,1,, -2000,NC,yes,-0.042,12,, -2000,ND,,0.414,1,, -2000,NE,,-0.036,3,, -2000,NH,,-0.381,2,, -2000,NJ,,-0.012,13,, -2000,NM,,-0.212,3,, -2000,NV,,0.191,2,, -2000,NY,,0.004,31,, -2000,OH,,-0.022,19,, -2000,OK,,-0.079,6,, -2000,OR,,0.169,5,, -2000,PA,,-0.043,21,, -2000,RI,,0.031,2,, -2000,SC,,-0.077,6,, -2000,SD,,-0.006,1,, -2000,TN,,-0.043,9,, -2000,TX,,0.134,30,, -2000,UT,,0.000,3,, -2000,VA,,-0.166,11,, -2000,VT,,0,1,, -2000,WA,,0.084,9,, -2000,WI,,0.105,9,, -2000,WV,,-0.020,3,, -2000,WY,,-0.099,1,, -2002,AK,yes,0.123,1,, -2002,AL,yes,-0.104,7,, -2002,AR,yes,0.126,4,, -2002,AZ,yes,-0.068,8,, -2002,CA,yes,0.056,53,, -2002,CO,yes,-0.092,7,, -2002,CT,yes,-0.144,5,, -2002,DE,yes,-0.041,1,, -2002,FL,yes,-0.104,25,, -2002,GA,yes,0.061,13,, -2002,HI,yes,0.169,2,, -2002,IA,yes,-0.207,5,, -2002,ID,yes,-0.200,2,, -2002,IL,yes,-0.056,19,, -2002,IN,yes,-0.032,9,, -2002,KS,yes,-0.017,4,, -2002,KY,yes,-0.084,6,, -2002,LA,yes,0.109,7,, -2002,MA,yes,0.135,10,, -2002,MD,yes,0.159,8,, -2002,ME,yes,0.331,2,, -2002,MI,yes,-0.058,15,, -2002,MN,yes,-0.022,8,, -2002,MO,yes,0.031,9,, -2002,MS,yes,0.043,4,, -2002,MT,yes,-0.172,1,, -2002,NC,yes,-0.003,13,, -2002,ND,yes,0.452,1,, -2002,NE,yes,-0.061,3,, -2002,NH,yes,-0.317,2,, -2002,NJ,yes,0.026,13,, -2002,NM,yes,-0.204,3,, -2002,NV,yes,0.108,3,, -2002,NY,yes,0.078,29,, -2002,OH,yes,-0.048,18,, -2002,OK,yes,-0.231,5,, -2002,OR,yes,0.177,5,, -2002,PA,yes,-0.082,19,, -2002,RI,yes,0.104,2,, -2002,SC,yes,-0.002,6,, -2002,SD,yes,-0.421,1,, -2002,TN,yes,0.093,9,, -2002,TX,yes,0.118,32,, -2002,UT,yes,0.018,3,, -2002,VA,yes,-0.041,11,, -2002,VT,yes,0,1,, -2002,WA,yes,0.090,9,, -2002,WI,yes,0.027,8,, -2002,WV,yes,0.076,3,, -2002,WY,yes,-0.249,1,, -2004,AK,,0.021,1,, -2004,AL,,-0.067,7,, -2004,AR,,0.095,4,, -2004,AZ,,-0.089,8,, -2004,CA,,0.015,53,, -2004,CO,,-0.073,7,, -2004,CT,,-0.212,5,, -2004,DE,,-0.101,1,, -2004,FL,,-0.086,25,, -2004,GA,,0.073,13,, -2004,HI,,0.224,2,, -2004,IA,,-0.163,5,, -2004,ID,,-0.098,2,, -2004,IL,,-0.045,19,, -2004,IN,,-0.117,9,, -2004,KS,,-0.022,4,, -2004,KY,,-0.122,6,, -2004,LA,,0.053,7,, -2004,MA,,0.076,10,, -2004,MD,,0.062,8,, -2004,ME,,0.307,2,, -2004,MI,,-0.090,15,, -2004,MN,,-0.040,8,, -2004,MO,,0.035,9,, -2004,MS,,0.068,4,, -2004,MT,,-0.175,1,, -2004,NC,,-0.017,13,, -2004,ND,,0.309,1,, -2004,NE,,-0.119,3,, -2004,NH,,-0.262,2,, -2004,NJ,,-0.012,13,, -2004,NM,,-0.203,3,, -2004,NV,,-0.052,3,, -2004,NY,,-0.003,29,, -2004,OH,,-0.103,18,, -2004,OK,,-0.103,5,, -2004,OR,,0.189,5,, -2004,PA,,-0.117,19,, -2004,RI,,0.076,2,, -2004,SC,,-0.033,6,, -2004,SD,,0.425,1,, -2004,TN,,0.065,9,, -2004,TX,yes,-0.010,32,, -2004,UT,,0.013,3,, -2004,VA,,-0.090,11,, -2004,VT,,0,1,, -2004,WA,,-0.023,9,, -2004,WI,,0.068,8,, -2004,WV,,0.010,3,, -2004,WY,,-0.362,1,, -2006,AK,,-0.329,1,, -2006,AL,,-0.035,7,, -2006,AR,,0.053,4,, -2006,AZ,,0.023,8,, -2006,CA,,-0.013,53,, -2006,CO,,-0.012,7,, -2006,CT,,0.086,5,, -2006,DE,,-0.308,1,, -2006,FL,,-0.101,25,, -2006,GA,yes,0.080,13,, -2006,HI,,0.199,2,, -2006,IA,,0.129,5,, -2006,ID,,-0.334,2,, -2006,IL,,-0.108,19,, -2006,IN,,0.067,9,, -2006,KS,,0.126,4,, -2006,KY,,-0.061,6,, -2006,LA,,0.103,7,, -2006,MA,,0.003,10,, -2006,MD,,0.003,8,, -2006,ME,,0.135,2,, -2006,MI,,-0.145,15,, -2006,MN,,0.059,8,, -2006,MO,,-0.028,9,, -2006,MS,,-0.065,4,, -2006,MT,,-0.298,1,, -2006,NC,,-0.002,13,, -2006,ND,,0.186,1,, -2006,NE,,-0.379,3,, -2006,NH,,0.450,2,, -2006,NJ,,-0.069,13,, -2006,NM,,-0.283,3,, -2006,NV,,-0.217,3,, -2006,NY,,-0.017,29,, -2006,OH,,-0.165,18,, -2006,OK,,-0.137,5,, -2006,OR,,0.143,5,, -2006,PA,,-0.023,19,, -2006,RI,,-0.024,2,, -2006,SC,,-0.048,6,, -2006,SD,,0.096,1,, -2006,TN,,0.019,9,, -2006,TX,yes,-0.002,32,, -2006,UT,,-0.078,3,, -2006,VA,,-0.169,11,, -2006,VT,,0.411,1,, -2006,WA,,-0.052,9,, -2006,WI,,0.070,8,, -2006,WV,,0.006,3,, -2006,WY,,-0.495,1,, -2008,AK,,-0.446,1,, -2008,AL,,0.040,7,, -2008,AR,,0.105,4,, -2008,AZ,,0.109,8,, -2008,CA,,-0.084,53,, -2008,CO,,0.095,7,, -2008,CT,,0.175,5,, -2008,DE,,-0.267,1,, -2008,FL,,-0.069,25,, -2008,GA,,-0.005,13,, -2008,HI,,-0.090,2,, -2008,IA,,0.058,5,, -2008,ID,,0.185,2,, -2008,IL,,-0.071,19,, -2008,IN,,-0.001,9,, -2008,KS,,-0.045,4,, -2008,KY,,-0.111,6,, -2008,LA,,-0.177,7,, -2008,MA,,0.051,10,, -2008,MD,,0.000,8,, -2008,ME,,0.284,2,, -2008,MI,,-0.039,15,, -2008,MN,,-0.027,8,, -2008,MO,,-0.054,9,, -2008,MS,,0.088,4,, -2008,MT,,-0.172,1,, -2008,NC,,0.022,13,, -2008,ND,,0.261,1,, -2008,NE,,-0.183,3,, -2008,NH,,0.394,2,, -2008,NJ,,-0.007,13,, -2008,NM,,0.325,3,, -2008,NV,,0.079,3,, -2008,NY,,0.057,29,, -2008,OH,,0.006,18,, -2008,OK,,-0.071,5,, -2008,OR,,0.071,5,, -2008,PA,,0.030,19,, -2008,RI,,0.062,2,, -2008,SC,,-0.156,6,, -2008,SD,,0.149,1,, -2008,TN,,0.126,9,, -2008,TX,,-0.039,32,, -2008,UT,,-0.044,3,, -2008,VA,,0.045,11,, -2008,VT,,0.170,1,, -2008,WA,,-0.017,9,, -2008,WI,,0.051,8,, -2008,WV,,0.029,3,, -2008,WY,,-0.397,1,, -2010,AK,,-0.114,1,, -2010,AL,,-0.137,7,, -2010,AR,,-0.094,4,, -2010,AZ,,-0.008,8,, -2010,CA,,0.022,53,, -2010,CO,,-0.022,7,, -2010,CT,,0.313,5,, -2010,DE,,0.339,1,, -2010,FL,,-0.074,25,, -2010,GA,,0.029,13,, -2010,HI,,0.226,2,, -2010,IA,,0.209,5,, -2010,ID,,-0.228,2,, -2010,IL,,-0.122,19,, -2010,IN,,0.011,9,, -2010,KS,,-0.181,4,, -2010,KY,,0.084,6,, -2010,LA,,-0.027,7,, -2010,MA,,0.278,10,, -2010,MD,,0.008,8,, -2010,ME,,0.380,2,, -2010,MI,,-0.017,15,, -2010,MN,,0.026,8,, -2010,MO,,-0.011,9,, -2010,MS,,-0.151,4,, -2010,MT,,-0.218,1,, -2010,NC,,0.128,13,, -2010,ND,,-0.402,1,, -2010,NE,,-0.091,3,, -2010,NH,,-0.431,2,, -2010,NJ,,0.053,13,, -2010,NM,,0.135,3,, -2010,NV,,-0.108,3,, -2010,NY,,0.051,29,, -2010,OH,,-0.102,18,, -2010,OK,,0.035,5,, -2010,OR,,0.245,5,, -2010,PA,,-0.083,19,, -2010,RI,,0.312,2,, -2010,SC,,-0.174,6,, -2010,SD,,-0.476,1,, -2010,TN,,-0.001,9,, -2010,TX,,0.047,32,, -2010,UT,,0.117,3,, -2010,VA,,-0.133,11,, -2010,VT,,0.163,1,, -2010,WA,,0.026,9,, -2010,WI,,-0.017,8,, -2010,WV,,-0.059,3,, -2010,WY,,-0.016,1,, -2012,AK,yes,-0.118,1,, -2012,AL,yes,-0.148,7,, -2012,AR,yes,-0.261,4,, -2012,AZ,yes,0.147,9,, -2012,CA,yes,0.010,53,, -2012,CO,yes,-0.100,7,, -2012,CT,yes,0.180,5,, -2012,DE,yes,0.183,1,, -2012,FL,yes,-0.105,27,, -2012,GA,yes,-0.069,14,, -2012,HI,yes,0.151,2,, -2012,IA,yes,-0.031,4,, -2012,ID,yes,-0.177,2,, -2012,IL,yes,0.058,18,, -2012,IN,yes,-0.194,9,, -2012,KS,yes,-0.220,4,, -2012,KY,yes,-0.133,6,, -2012,LA,yes,-0.131,6,, -2012,MA,yes,0.135,9,, -2012,MD,yes,0.066,8,, -2012,ME,yes,0.267,2,, -2012,MI,yes,-0.197,14,, -2012,MN,yes,0.013,8,, -2012,MO,yes,-0.117,8,, -2012,MS,yes,-0.135,4,, -2012,MT,yes,-0.390,1,, -2012,NC,yes,-0.211,13,, -2012,ND,yes,-0.363,1,, -2012,NE,yes,-0.215,3,, -2012,NH,yes,0.455,2,, -2012,NJ,yes,-0.112,12,, -2012,NM,yes,0.064,3,, -2012,NV,yes,0.004,4,, -2012,NY,yes,-0.023,27,, -2012,OH,yes,-0.223,16,, -2012,OK,yes,-0.148,5,, -2012,OR,yes,0.151,5,, -2012,PA,yes,-0.237,18,, -2012,RI,yes,0.321,2,, -2012,SC,yes,-0.228,7,, -2012,SD,yes,-0.351,1,, -2012,TN,yes,-0.057,9,, -2012,TX,yes,-0.006,36,, -2012,UT,yes,0.083,4,, -2012,VA,yes,-0.208,11,, -2012,VT,yes,-0.011,1,, -2012,WA,yes,0.011,10,, -2012,WI,yes,-0.140,8,, -2012,WV,yes,0.032,3,, -2012,WY,yes,-0.014,1,, -2014,AK,,-0.391,1,, -2014,AL,,-0.091,7,, -2014,AR,,-0.272,4,, -2014,AZ,,0.075,9,, -2014,CA,,0.097,53,, -2014,CO,,-0.038,7,, -2014,CT,,0.281,5,, -2014,DE,,0.266,1,, -2014,FL,,-0.038,27,, -2014,GA,,-0.090,14,, -2014,HI,,0.176,2,, -2014,IA,,-0.172,4,, -2014,ID,,-0.236,2,, -2014,IL,,0.027,18,, -2014,IN,,-0.056,9,, -2014,KS,,-0.231,4,, -2014,KY,,-0.062,6,, -2014,LA,,-0.001,6,, -2014,MA,,0.203,9,, -2014,MD,,0.212,8,, -2014,ME,,-0.145,2,, -2014,MI,,-0.160,14,, -2014,MN,,0.114,8,, -2014,MO,,-0.010,8,, -2014,MS,,-0.051,4,, -2014,MT,,-0.343,1,, -2014,NC,,-0.196,13,, -2014,ND,,-0.319,1,, -2014,NE,,0.129,3,, -2014,NH,,-0.031,2,, -2014,NJ,,-0.026,12,, -2014,NM,,0.107,3,, -2014,NV,,-0.066,4,, -2014,NY,,0.039,27,, -2014,OH,,-0.082,16,, -2014,OK,,-0.057,5,, -2014,OR,,0.157,5,, -2014,PA,,-0.151,18,, -2014,RI,,0.278,2,, -2014,SC,,-0.173,7,, -2014,SD,,-0.169,1,, -2014,TN,,0.005,9,, -2014,TX,,0.056,36,, -2014,UT,,-0.187,4,, -2014,VA,,-0.129,11,, -2014,VT,,0.150,1,, -2014,WA,,0.015,10,, -2014,WI,,-0.069,8,, -2014,WV,,-0.358,3,, -2014,WY,,-0.001,1,, -2016,AK,,-0.334,1,, -2016,AL,,-0.097,7,, -2016,AR,,-0.140,4,, -2016,AZ,,0.029,9,, -2016,CA,,-0.012,53,, -2016,CO,,-0.062,7,, -2016,CT,,0.221,5,, -2016,DE,,0.349,1,, -2016,FL,yes,-0.029,27,, -2016,GA,,-0.100,14,, -2016,HI,,-0.074,2,, -2016,IA,,-0.191,4,, -2016,ID,,-0.137,2,, -2016,IL,,0.018,18,, -2016,IN,,-0.072,9,, -2016,KS,,-0.218,4,, -2016,KY,,-0.032,6,, -2016,LA,,0.031,6,, -2016,MA,,0.084,9,, -2016,MD,,0.116,8,, -2016,ME,,-0.039,2,, -2016,MI,,-0.132,14,, -2016,MN,,0.089,8,, -2016,MO,,-0.038,8,, -2016,MS,,-0.035,4,, -2016,MT,,-0.338,1,, -2016,NC,yes,-0.203,13,, -2016,ND,,-0.011,1,, -2016,NE,,-0.205,3,, -2016,NH,,0.469,2,, -2016,NJ,,0.001,12,, -2016,NM,,0.046,3,, -2016,NV,,0.240,4,, -2016,NY,,-0.063,27,, -2016,OH,,-0.087,16,, -2016,OK,,-0.079,5,, -2016,OR,,0.177,5,, -2016,PA,,-0.189,18,, -2016,RI,,0.198,2,, -2016,SC,,-0.154,7,, -2016,SD,,-0.218,1,, -2016,TN,,0.017,9,, -2016,TX,,-0.038,36,, -2016,UT,,-0.168,4,, -2016,VA,yes,-0.106,11,, -2016,VT,,0.058,1,, -2016,WA,,-0.013,10,, -2016,WI,,-0.057,8,, -2016,WV,,-0.171,3,, -2016,WY,,-0.152,1,, -2018,AK,,-0.434,1,, -2018,AL,,-0.155,7,, -2018,AR,,-0.220,4,, -2018,AZ,,0.048,9,, -2018,CA,,0.057,53,, -2018,CO,,-0.037,7,, -2018,CT,,0.253,5,, -2018,DE,,0.211,1,, -2018,FL,,-0.014,27,, -2018,GA,,-0.112,14,, -2018,HI,,-0.034,2,, -2018,IA,,0.209,4,, -2018,ID,,-0.221,2,, -2018,IL,,0.000,18,, -2018,IN,,-0.168,9,, -2018,KS,,-0.154,4,, -2018,KY,,-0.125,6,, -2018,LA,,-0.097,6,, -2018,MA,,0.114,9,, -2018,MD,,0.037,8,, -2018,ME,,0.348,2,, -2018,MI,,-0.074,14,, -2018,MN,,0.015,8,, -2018,MO,,-0.122,8,, -2018,MS,,-0.084,4,, -2018,MT,,-0.452,1,, -2018,NC,,-0.279,13,, -2018,ND,,-0.178,1,, -2018,NE,,-0.259,3,, -2018,NH,,0.389,2,, -2018,NJ,,0.201,12,, -2018,NM,,0.292,3,, -2018,NV,,0.195,4,, -2018,NY,,-0.036,27,, -2018,OH,,-0.202,16,, -2018,OK,,-0.039,5,, 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side) + currentValue: 0, // default: no-swing (center) +}; + // the map uses a choropleth constructed from BELLCURVE_SPREAD // but for nodata states, use this NODATA value and this color fill const MAP_NODATA_VALUE = 999999; @@ -157,7 +169,13 @@ window.initYearPickers = () => { // attach to all year elements in both timeline and future $('#yearpicker-timeline a[id^="yearpicker-"], #yearpicker-future a[id^="yearpicker-"]', $picker_big).on('click', function () { const elementId = $(this).attr('id'); - const year = elementId.replace('yearpicker-', ''); + let year = elementId.replace('yearpicker-', ''); + + // When clicking on predict, use the current slider value to determine the year + if (year === 'predict') { + year = getPredictionYearString(PREDICTION_SLIDER.currentValue); + } + selectYear(year); logToGoogleAnalytics('yearselected', year); }); @@ -168,6 +186,142 @@ window.initYearPickers = () => { }); }; +window.initPredictionSlider = () => { + // lazy initialization: only set up once when predict mode is first activated + if (PREDICTION_SLIDER.initialized) return; + PREDICTION_SLIDER.initialized = true; + + const $thumb = $('#yearpicker-predict-thumb'); + const $circle = $thumb.find('circle'); + const $label = $thumb.find('text'); + const $slider = $('#yearpicker-predict-slider'); + + // read slider dimensions from DOM + const sliderX = parseFloat($slider.attr('x')); + const sliderWidth = parseFloat($slider.attr('width')); + const sliderY = parseFloat($slider.attr('y')); + const sliderHeight = parseFloat($slider.attr('height')); + const circleRadius = parseFloat($circle.attr('r')); + + // calculate bounds with 1px clearance for circle + PREDICTION_SLIDER.minX = sliderX + circleRadius + 1; + PREDICTION_SLIDER.maxX = sliderX + sliderWidth - circleRadius - 1; + PREDICTION_SLIDER.centerY = sliderY + (sliderHeight / 2); + + // original position of thumb in SVG (read from group's transform) + const transformAttr = $thumb.attr('transform'); + const transformMatch = transformAttr ? transformAttr.match(/translate\(([^,]+)/) : null; + const originalX = transformMatch ? parseFloat(transformMatch[1]) : 0; + const originalY = parseFloat($circle.attr('cy')); + + // helper: convert slider position (x coordinate) to prediction value + // reversed: left = D (positive), right = R (negative) + const positionToValue = (x) => { + const fraction = (x - PREDICTION_SLIDER.minX) / (PREDICTION_SLIDER.maxX - PREDICTION_SLIDER.minX); + return Math.round(PREDICTION_SLIDER.maxValue - fraction * (PREDICTION_SLIDER.maxValue - PREDICTION_SLIDER.minValue)); + }; + + // helper: convert prediction value to slider position (x coordinate) + // reversed: left = D (positive), right = R (negative) + const valueToPosition = (value) => { + const fraction = (PREDICTION_SLIDER.maxValue - value) / (PREDICTION_SLIDER.maxValue - PREDICTION_SLIDER.minValue); + return PREDICTION_SLIDER.minX + fraction * (PREDICTION_SLIDER.maxX - PREDICTION_SLIDER.minX); + }; + + // helper: update thumb position and label using matrix transform + const updateThumb = (x, skipYearUpdate = false) => { + // constrain x to slider bounds + const constrainedX = Math.max(PREDICTION_SLIDER.minX, Math.min(PREDICTION_SLIDER.maxX, x)); + const value = positionToValue(constrainedX); + + PREDICTION_SLIDER.currentValue = value; + + // x is the desired absolute position, use it directly as translation + // (since circle is at cx="0" in the group, translation = absolute position) + const translateX = constrainedX; + + // apply matrix transform to move entire group + $thumb.attr('transform', `translate(${translateX}, 0)`); + + // update label text + $label.text(formatSwingValue(value)); + + // update the year state to match slider position + if (!skipYearUpdate) { + const predictionYear = getPredictionYearString(value); + // Update the year, hash, and reload data to show the new prediction scenario + if (CURRENT_VIEW.year !== predictionYear) { + CURRENT_VIEW.year = predictionYear; + updateAddressHash(); + loadDataForSelectedBoundaryAndYear(); + } + } + }; + + // prevent thumb click from triggering parent link + $thumb.on('click', function (event) { + event.preventDefault(); + event.stopPropagation(); + }); + + // click on slider: move thumb to clicked position + $slider.on('click', function (event) { + event.preventDefault(); + event.stopPropagation(); + + // get mouse position relative to the SVG + const svg = $('#yearpicker-future')[0]; + const pt = svg.createSVGPoint(); + pt.x = event.clientX; + pt.y = event.clientY; + const svgP = pt.matrixTransform(svg.getScreenCTM().inverse()); + + updateThumb(svgP.x); + }); + + // mousedown on thumb: start dragging + $thumb.on('mousedown', function (event) { + event.preventDefault(); + event.stopPropagation(); + PREDICTION_SLIDER.isDragging = true; + $thumb.css('cursor', 'grabbing'); + }); + + // mousemove on document: update position if dragging + $(document).on('mousemove.predictionslider', function (event) { + if (!PREDICTION_SLIDER.isDragging) return; + + // get mouse position relative to the SVG + const svg = $('#yearpicker-future')[0]; + const pt = svg.createSVGPoint(); + pt.x = event.clientX; + pt.y = event.clientY; + const svgP = pt.matrixTransform(svg.getScreenCTM().inverse()); + + updateThumb(svgP.x); + }); + + // mouseup on document: stop dragging + $(document).on('mouseup.predictionslider', function () { + if (PREDICTION_SLIDER.isDragging) { + PREDICTION_SLIDER.isDragging = false; + $thumb.css('cursor', 'pointer'); + } + }); + + // initialize thumb to current value + const initialPosition = valueToPosition(PREDICTION_SLIDER.currentValue); + updateThumb(initialPosition, true); + + // After initialization, update the year state to match the slider position + // This ensures CURRENT_VIEW.year and the hash are correct + const predictionYear = getPredictionYearString(PREDICTION_SLIDER.currentValue); + if (CURRENT_VIEW.year !== predictionYear) { + CURRENT_VIEW.year = predictionYear; + updateAddressHash(); + } +}; + window.initBoundaryPicker = () => { $('#boundarypicker div[data-boundary]').click(function () { const boundarytype = $(this).attr('data-boundary'); @@ -182,17 +336,45 @@ window.initLoadStartingConditions = () => { let year = PLAN_YEARS[PLAN_YEARS.length - 1]; let type = 'ushouse'; - const year_and_type = /^#!(\d\d\d\d)\-(\w+)$/.exec(window.location.hash); + // Match: predict, predict0, predict12D, predict12R, or 4-digit years + const year_and_type = /^#!(predict(?:\d+[DR]|\d+)?|\d\d\d\d)\-(\w+)$/.exec(window.location.hash); if (year_and_type) { year = year_and_type[1]; type = year_and_type[2]; } + // If we have a prediction year from the URL, parse it and set the slider value + if (isPredictionYear(year)) { + PREDICTION_SLIDER.currentValue = parseSwingSlug(year); + } + // ready, set, go selectYear(year); selectBoundaryType(type); }; +window.parseSwingSlug = (slug) => { + const match = slug.match(/predict(\d+)?([DR])?/); + if (match) { + const value = match[1] ? parseInt(match[1]) : 0; + const party = match[2]; // 'D', 'R', or undefined + if (party === 'R') { + return -value; + } else if (party === 'D') { + return value; + } else { + return 0; + } + } + + return undefined; +}; + +window.formatSwingValue = (value) => { + if (value === 0) return 'No-Swing'; + return value > 0 ? `+${value}D` : `+${Math.abs(value)}R`; +}; + window.handleResize = () => { // various things that don't gracefully handle being resized, so we need to help them out @@ -208,6 +390,21 @@ window.handleResize = () => { // loadDataForSelectedBoundaryAndYear() is the real worker here; the others are basically convenience functions // +// Helper: Convert prediction slider value to year string +// value: -12 to +12 (negative = R, positive = D, 0 = No swing) +// returns: "predict0", "predict12D", "predict12R", etc. +window.getPredictionYearString = (value) => { + if (value === 0) return 'predict0'; + if (value > 0) return `predict${value}D`; + return `predict${Math.abs(value)}R`; +}; + +// Helper: Check if a year string is a prediction year +// returns: true for "predict", "predict0", "predict5D", "predict12R", etc. +window.isPredictionYear = (year) => { + return String(year).startsWith('predict'); +}; + window.loadDataForSelectedBoundaryAndYear = (options={}) => { if (! CURRENT_VIEW.year || ! CURRENT_VIEW.boundtype) return; // need both; during startup one will be blank, so avoid an error @@ -239,7 +436,11 @@ window.loadDataForSelectedBoundaryAndYear = (options={}) => { // primarily used when switching district types, as not all district types have the same coverage for every year (e.g. State House 2016) if (options.fudgeYearIfNoData) { const yearColumn = CURRENT_VIEW.boundtype === 'ushouse' ? 'cycle' : 'year'; - const hasdata = results.data.filter((datarow) => { return datarow[yearColumn] == CURRENT_VIEW.year; }).length; + // For predict years in non-ushouse boundaries, default to 2026 since predictions are ushouse-only + const yearToCheck = (isPredictionYear(CURRENT_VIEW.year) && CURRENT_VIEW.boundtype !== 'ushouse') + ? 2026 + : CURRENT_VIEW.year; + const hasdata = results.data.filter((datarow) => { return datarow[yearColumn] == yearToCheck; }).length; if (! hasdata) { const wehavetheseyears = results.data.map((datarow) => { return datarow[yearColumn] ? parseInt(datarow[yearColumn]) : 0; // workaround for 176, iOS 11 including blank rows so year=NaN @@ -282,6 +483,7 @@ window.loadDataForSelectedBoundaryAndYear = (options={}) => { const seatBiases = {}; const stateAreas = {}; const rawScales = {}; + const realScales = {}; results.data.forEach(function (datarow) { const value = parseFloat(datarow.EG); const seats = parseInt(datarow.seats); @@ -295,12 +497,16 @@ window.loadDataForSelectedBoundaryAndYear = (options={}) => { const $shape = $(`#state-shape-${datarow.stateabrev}`); const stateArea = parseFloat($shape.attr('data-area')) || 1; - // Dimensionless raw scale that we'll adjust later - rawScales[`${datarow.stateabrev}-${datarow.cycle}`] = Math.sqrt(seatBias * 1e11 / stateArea); + // Dimensionless raw scales that we'll adjust later + var rawScale = Math.sqrt(seatBias * 1e11 / stateArea); + rawScales[`${datarow.stateabrev}-${datarow.cycle}`] = rawScale; + if (datarow.cycle.match(/^(19|20)\d\d$/)) { + realScales[`${datarow.stateabrev}-${datarow.cycle}`] = rawScale; + } }); - // Find the P10 and P90 raw scales to guide visual range - const scalesList = Object.values(rawScales).sort(function (a, b) { return a - b }); + // Find the P10 and P90 real scales to guide visual range + const scalesList = Object.values(realScales).sort(function (a, b) { return a - b }); const p90RawScale = scalesList[Math.round(scalesList.length * 0.9)]; const p10RawScale = scalesList[Math.round(scalesList.length * 0.1)]; console.log(`p10RawScale ${p10RawScale.toFixed(2)}, p90RawScale ${p90RawScale.toFixed(2)}`); @@ -344,7 +550,8 @@ window.loadDataForSelectedBoundaryAndYear = (options={}) => { // this is loop-within-loop as we match arrays to arrays, but P=50 and Q=20ish so it's affordable results.data.forEach(function (datarow) { // Boolean flag for mid-cycle redistricting on this plan - const midCycleplan = (datarow.newplan == "yes") && (CURRENT_VIEW.year % 10 != 2); + const numericYear = isPredictionYear(CURRENT_VIEW.year) ? 2026 : CURRENT_VIEW.year; + const midCycleplan = (datarow.newplan == "yes") && (numericYear % 10 != 2); // For ushouse, use different column names if (CURRENT_VIEW.boundtype === 'ushouse') { @@ -355,7 +562,6 @@ window.loadDataForSelectedBoundaryAndYear = (options={}) => { chartrow.seats = parseInt(datarow.seats); chartrow.percentrank = null; chartrow.url = datarow.url; - chartrow.districts = datarow.districts ? JSON.parse(datarow.districts) : undefined; chartrow.stateScale = datarow.stateScale; chartrow.midcyclePlan = midCycleplan; } else { @@ -383,7 +589,7 @@ window.loadDataForSelectedBoundaryAndYear = (options={}) => { }); function updateTooltipContent(stateInfo) { - const isPrediction = (CURRENT_VIEW.year == 2026) && stateInfo.url; + const isPrediction = (CURRENT_VIEW.year == 2026 || isPredictionYear(CURRENT_VIEW.year)) && stateInfo.url; // Update tooltip content with state data $('#state-tooltip .state-name').text(stateInfo.name); @@ -404,8 +610,14 @@ window.loadDataForSelectedBoundaryAndYear = (options={}) => { const stateslug = stateInfo.name.toLowerCase().replace(/\W/g, '_'); const currview = CURRENT_VIEW.boundtype; const moreinfourl = stateInfo.url ? stateInfo.url : `/${stateslug}/#!${CURRENT_VIEW.year}-${plan_or_election}-${currview}`; - const curryear = isPrediction ? '2024+Remaps*' : (CURRENT_VIEW.year == 2026 ? 2024 : CURRENT_VIEW.year); - const linkHtml = `(${curryear} Plan)`; + var linkHtml = `${CURRENT_VIEW.year} Plan`; + if (isPredictionYear(CURRENT_VIEW.year)) { + linkHtml = `${formatSwingValue(parseSwingSlug(CURRENT_VIEW.year))} Prediction`; + } else if (isPrediction) { + linkHtml = '2024+Remaps* Plan'; + } else if (CURRENT_VIEW.year == 2026) { + linkHtml = '2024 Plan'; + } $('#state-tooltip .link').attr('href', moreinfourl).html(linkHtml); // Show/hide link based on data and seat count @@ -443,8 +655,15 @@ window.loadDataForSelectedBoundaryAndYear = (options={}) => { const biasEval = lookupBias('eg', nationalEG, CURRENT_VIEW.boundtype); const absBiasPercent = twoDigits(Math.abs(100 * nationalEG)); const absBiasSeats = twoDigits(Math.abs(nationalEG * totalSeats)); - const currYear = CURRENT_VIEW.year == 2026 ? '2024+Remaps*' : CURRENT_VIEW.year; - const turnoutNote = CURRENT_VIEW.year == 2026 ? '' : ''; + var currYear = CURRENT_VIEW.year; + var turnoutNote = ''; + if (isPredictionYear(CURRENT_VIEW.year)) { + currYear = `${formatSwingValue(parseSwingSlug(CURRENT_VIEW.year))} Predictions`; + turnoutNote = ''; + } else if(CURRENT_VIEW.year == 2026) { + currYear = '2024+Remaps*'; + turnoutNote = ''; + } $('#ushouse-legend .swatch').css({ 'background': biasEval.color }); $('#ushouse-legend .caption').html(`Total ${currYear} Bias:`); $('#ushouse-legend .bias').html(`${absBiasPercent}% (${absBiasSeats} seats)${turnoutNote} pro-${biasEval.party}`); @@ -797,16 +1016,26 @@ window.selectYear = (year, options={}) => { // remove active class from all years and add to the selected one const $picker_big = $('#yearpicker-big'); $('#yearpicker-timeline a[id^="yearpicker-"], #yearpicker-future a[id^="yearpicker-"]', $picker_big).removeClass('active'); - $(`#yearpicker-${year}`, $picker_big).addClass('active'); + // For prediction years, activate the "predict" element + const yearForPicker = isPredictionYear(year) ? 'predict' : year; + $(`#yearpicker-${yearForPicker}`, $picker_big).addClass('active'); + + // save to the state BEFORE initializing slider (slider init needs this to be set) + CURRENT_VIEW.year = year; // UI update: yearpicker-current indicator position and text // move the current year indicator to match the selected year's position // but hide it if year 2026 is selected (which is in the yearpicker-future SVG) const $current = $('#yearpicker-current', $picker_big); - if (year == 2026) { - // year 2026 is in yearpicker-future, so hide the current indicator + if (year == 2026 || isPredictionYear(year)) { + // years past 2024 are in yearpicker-future, so hide the current indicator $current.hide(); + + // initialize prediction slider when predict mode is activated + if (isPredictionYear(year)) { + initPredictionSlider(); + } } else { // show the indicator and position it at the selected year $current.show(); @@ -828,9 +1057,6 @@ window.selectYear = (year, options={}) => { } } - // save to the state and refresh the map + data - CURRENT_VIEW.year = year; - loadDataForSelectedBoundaryAndYear(options); // no new options nor overrides; just pass options as-given }; diff --git a/index.scss b/index.scss index ba2f8ba9..eeec760d 100644 --- a/index.scss +++ b/index.scss @@ -291,7 +291,13 @@ body.ushouse-selected { } a.unavailable { - display: none; + cursor: not-allowed; + path, circle { + stroke: #999; + } + text { + fill: #999; + } } a .hitarea { fill: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); @@ -320,14 +326,38 @@ body.ushouse-selected { } #yearpicker-future { + a.active { + cursor: inherit; + } a.active text { fill: white; } - a .background { - visibility: hidden; + a { + .background, #yearpicker-predict-voteswing { + visibility: hidden; + } + } + a.active { + .background, #yearpicker-predict-voteswing { + visibility: visible; + } } - a.active .background { - visibility: visible; + #yearpicker-predict-voteswing { + text { + font-size: 10px; + text-anchor: middle; + } + #yearpicker-predict-slider { + fill: white; + cursor: pointer; + } + #yearpicker-predict-thumb { + cursor: pointer; + circle { + fill: black; + stroke: none; + } + } } } } diff --git a/index.src.html b/index.src.html index 7e61b906..4425c9f7 100644 --- a/index.src.html +++ b/index.src.html @@ -490,16 +490,8 @@

Evaluate their fairness.

- - - - - - 2026 Predictions - - - + @@ -507,13 +499,22 @@

Evaluate their fairness.

2024 + Remaps* - - - - - - - 2024 + Remaps* + + + + + + + 2026 Predictions + + + + + + Even + + Drag to swing vote + diff --git a/update-ushouse-data-files.py b/update-ushouse-data-files.py new file mode 100755 index 00000000..fdccb501 --- /dev/null +++ b/update-ushouse-data-files.py @@ -0,0 +1,306 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +import argparse +import concurrent.futures +import csv +import dataclasses +import json +import logging +import operator +import re +import sys +import typing +import urllib.request + +import oauth2client.service_account +import googleapiclient.discovery + +@dataclasses.dataclass +class Election: + cycle: str + stateabrev: str + newplan: str + EG: float + seats: int + url: str + +@dataclasses.dataclass +class District: + dem_wins: float + dem_share: float + total_votes: int + +@dataclasses.dataclass +class GdocsStates: + states: dict + service: typing.Any + +PLAN_URL_PAT = re.compile(r"^https://(?Pdev.)?planscore.org/plan.html\?(?P[\.\w]+)$") +INDEX_URL_FMT = "https://{bucket}.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/{id}/index.json" +STACK_BUCKETS = {None: "planscore", "dev.": "planscore--dev"} +ELECTION_FIELDS = tuple(f.name for f in dataclasses.fields(Election)) + +SPREADSHEET_ID = '1rcYOxrr_bqkQWggCeP8W6eYkofl9_Zk0deHv62ilE8Y' + +STATE_ABBREVS = { + 'Alabama': 'AL', 'Alaska': 'AK', 'Arizona': 'AZ', 'Arkansas': 'AR', 'California': 'CA', + 'Colorado': 'CO', 'Connecticut': 'CT', 'Delaware': 'DE', 'Florida': 'FL', 'Georgia': 'GA', + 'Hawaii': 'HI', 'Idaho': 'ID', 'Illinois': 'IL', 'Indiana': 'IN', 'Iowa': 'IA', + 'Kansas': 'KS', 'Kentucky': 'KY', 'Louisiana': 'LA', 'Maine': 'ME', 'Maryland': 'MD', + 'Massachusetts': 'MA', 'Michigan': 'MI', 'Minnesota': 'MN', 'Mississippi': 'MS', + 'Missouri': 'MO', 'Montana': 'MT', 'Nebraska': 'NE', 'Nevada': 'NV', 'New Hampshire': 'NH', + 'New Jersey': 'NJ', 'New Mexico': 'NM', 'New York': 'NY', 'North Carolina': 'NC', + 'North Dakota': 'ND', 'Ohio': 'OH', 'Oklahoma': 'OK', 'Oregon': 'OR', 'Pennsylvania': 'PA', + 'Rhode Island': 'RI', 'South Carolina': 'SC', 'South Dakota': 'SD', 'Tennessee': 'TN', + 'Texas': 'TX', 'Utah': 'UT', 'Vermont': 'VT', 'Virginia': 'VA', 'Washington': 'WA', + 'West Virginia': 'WV', 'Wisconsin': 'WI', 'Wyoming': 'WY' +} + +logging.basicConfig(level=logging.DEBUG, stream=sys.stderr) + +def load_google_states(credentials_file: str) -> GdocsStates: + """Load states data from Google Sheets""" + scope = ['https://www.googleapis.com/auth/spreadsheets'] + credentials = oauth2client.service_account.ServiceAccountCredentials.from_json_keyfile_name( + credentials_file, scope + ) + service = googleapiclient.discovery.build('sheets', 'v4', credentials=credentials) + + result = service.spreadsheets().values().get( + spreadsheetId=SPREADSHEET_ID, + range='States!A:M' + ).execute() + + values = result.get('values', []) + headers = values[0] + + states = {} + for row_idx, row in enumerate(values[1:], start=2): # start=2 because row 1 is headers + row_padded = row + [''] * (len(headers) - len(row)) + state_data = dict(zip(headers, row_padded)) + state_name = state_data['State Name'] + # Store by abbreviation for easy lookup, also store row index for updates + abbrev = STATE_ABBREVS.get(state_name) + if abbrev: + state_data['_row_index'] = row_idx + states[abbrev] = state_data + + return GdocsStates(states, service) + +def load_google_state_swings(service: typing.Any) -> dict: + """Load most recent State Swings worksheet data""" + # Get all sheets in the spreadsheet + spreadsheet = service.spreadsheets().get(spreadsheetId=SPREADSHEET_ID).execute() + sheets = spreadsheet.get('sheets', []) + + # Find all State Swings worksheets + swings_sheets = [] + for sheet in sheets: + title = sheet['properties']['title'] + if title.startswith('State Swings '): + # Extract date from title like "State Swings 2026-01-17" + date_str = title.replace('State Swings ', '') + swings_sheets.append((date_str, title)) + + if not swings_sheets: + logging.debug("No State Swings worksheets found") + return {} + + # Sort by date and get the most recent + swings_sheets.sort(reverse=True) + most_recent_date, most_recent_title = swings_sheets[0] + logging.debug(f"Using State Swings worksheet: {most_recent_title}") + + # Load data from the most recent sheet - read wide range to get all columns + result = service.spreadsheets().values().get( + spreadsheetId=SPREADSHEET_ID, + range=f"'{most_recent_title}'!A:AZ" + ).execute() + + values = result.get('values', []) + if not values: + return {} + + headers = values[0] + + # Build dict mapping state abbreviation -> dict of column names to URLs + # Structure: {state_abbrev: {column_name: url}} + state_swings = {} + for row in values[1:]: + row_padded = row + [''] * (len(headers) - len(row)) + state_data = dict(zip(headers, row_padded)) + state_name = state_data.get('State Name', '') + + # Convert state name to abbreviation + abbrev = STATE_ABBREVS.get(state_name) + if not abbrev: + continue + + # Extract all PlanScore URL columns + state_urls = {} + for header, value in state_data.items(): + if 'PlanScore URL' in header and value and value.strip(): + state_urls[header] = value.strip() + + if state_urls: + state_swings[abbrev] = state_urls + logging.debug(f" {abbrev}: {len(state_urls)} URLs found") + + return state_swings + +def get_state_swings_column_name(cycle: str) -> typing.Optional[str]: + """Convert cycle name to State Swings worksheet column name + + Examples: + predict0 -> No-Swing PlanScore URL + predict1D -> D+1 PlanScore URL + predict12D -> D+12 PlanScore URL + predict1R -> R+1 PlanScore URL + predict12R -> R+12 PlanScore URL + """ + if cycle == "predict0": + return "No-Swing PlanScore URL" + + # Parse predictXD or predictXR format + match = re.match(r'^predict(\d+)([DR])$', cycle) + if not match: + return None + + number = match.group(1) + party = match.group(2) + + return f"{party}+{number} PlanScore URL" + +def planscore2election(plan_url: str, row: dict) -> typing.Optional[Election]: + """Process an existing plan URL to calculate election data""" + if not (plan_match := PLAN_URL_PAT.match(plan_url)): + raise ValueError(plan_url) + + logging.debug(f"Processing plan: {plan_url}") + plan_bucket = STACK_BUCKETS[plan_match.group("stack")] + index_url = INDEX_URL_FMT.format(bucket=plan_bucket, id=plan_match.group("id")) + index_data = json.load(urllib.request.urlopen(index_url)) + + districts = [ + District( + t["Democratic Wins"], + t["Democratic Votes"] / (t["Democratic Votes"] + t["Republican Votes"]), + t.get("US President 2024 - DEM", t["US President 2020 - DEM"]) + t.get("US President 2024 - REP", t["US President 2020 - REP"]), + ) + for t in map(operator.itemgetter("totals"), index_data["districts"]) + ] + state_votes = sum(d.total_votes for d in districts) + + # vote share is turnout-weighted, seat share is not + seat_share = sum(d.dem_wins * 1 / len(districts) for d in districts) + vote_share = sum(d.dem_share * d.total_votes / state_votes for d in districts) + efficiency_gap = (seat_share - .5) - 2 * (vote_share - .5) + + return Election( + row.get("cycle"), + row.get("stateabrev"), + row.get("newplan"), + round(efficiency_gap, 3), + row.get("seats"), + row.get("url"), + ) + +def process_row(index: int, row: dict, gdocs: GdocsStates, state_swings: dict) -> tuple[int, Election]: + """Process a single row and return (index, Election) tuple""" + cycle = row.get("cycle") + + if cycle == "2026": + # For 2026 rows, check if state has a redraw (column G) + stateabrev = row.get("stateabrev") + google_state = gdocs.states.get(stateabrev) + + if google_state: + has_redraw = google_state.get('2026 Redraw', '').strip().upper() == 'Y' + plan_url = google_state.get('PlanScore URL', '').strip() + + if has_redraw and plan_url: + # State has a redraw and URL in Google Sheets, process the plan + row = dict(row) + row['url'] = plan_url + election = planscore2election(plan_url, row) + return (index, election) + else: + # No redraw or no URL, keep row as-is without URL + return (index, Election(*(row.get(f) for f in ELECTION_FIELDS))) + else: + # No Google Sheets data for this state, keep row as-is + return (index, Election(*(row.get(f) for f in ELECTION_FIELDS))) + elif cycle and cycle.startswith("predict"): + # For predict* rows, check State Swings worksheet + stateabrev = row.get("stateabrev") + column_name = get_state_swings_column_name(cycle) + + if column_name and stateabrev in state_swings: + # Get the URL for this specific column/cycle + plan_url = state_swings[stateabrev].get(column_name, '').strip() + + if plan_url: + # State has a URL for this cycle in State Swings, process the plan + row = dict(row) + row['url'] = plan_url + election = planscore2election(plan_url, row) + return (index, election) + else: + # No URL for this cycle, keep row as-is + return (index, Election(*(row.get(f) for f in ELECTION_FIELDS))) + else: + # State not in State Swings or invalid cycle name, keep row as-is + return (index, Election(*(row.get(f) for f in ELECTION_FIELDS))) + else: + # Not a 2026 or predict cycle, keep row as-is + return (index, Election(*(row.get(f) for f in ELECTION_FIELDS))) + +def main(credentials_file: str, filename: str): + # Load Google Sheets states data + logging.debug("Loading Google Sheets states data...") + gdocs = load_google_states(credentials_file) + logging.debug(f"Loaded {len(gdocs.states)} states from Google Sheets") + + # Load State Swings data + logging.debug("Loading State Swings data...") + state_swings = load_google_state_swings(gdocs.service) + logging.debug(f"Loaded {len(state_swings)} states from State Swings") + + with open(filename, "r") as file1: + rows = list(csv.DictReader(file1)) + + logging.info(f"{rows[:3]}, {rows[-3:]}") + + # Process all rows in parallel using ThreadPoolExecutor with 10 workers + with concurrent.futures.ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=10) as executor: + # Submit all rows with their indices + futures = [ + executor.submit(process_row, index, row, gdocs, state_swings) + for index, row in enumerate(rows) + ] + + # Collect results as they complete + results = [] + for future in concurrent.futures.as_completed(futures): + results.append(future.result()) + + # Sort results by original index to maintain ordering + results.sort(key=lambda x: x[0]) + + # Extract just the Election objects + elections = [election for index, election in results] + + logging.info(f"{elections[:3]}, {elections[-3:]}") + + with open(filename, "w") as file2: + out = csv.DictWriter(file2, ELECTION_FIELDS) + out.writeheader() + for election in elections: + out.writerow(dataclasses.asdict(election)) + +parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() +parser.add_argument("credentials_file") +parser.add_argument("filename") + +if __name__ == "__main__": + args = parser.parse_args() + exit(main(args.credentials_file, args.filename)) diff --git a/update-ushouse-elections.py b/update-ushouse-elections.py index 1e33ac3b..1771da3d 100755 --- a/update-ushouse-elections.py +++ b/update-ushouse-elections.py @@ -1,12 +1,9 @@ #!/usr/bin/env python3 import argparse -import csv -import dataclasses import datetime import http.client import json import logging -import operator import os import re import shutil @@ -22,33 +19,16 @@ import oauth2client.service_account import googleapiclient.discovery -@dataclasses.dataclass -class Election: - cycle: str - stateabrev: str - newplan: str - EG: float - seats: int - url: str - districts: str - -@dataclasses.dataclass -class District: - dem_wins: float - dem_share: float - total_votes: int - -@dataclasses.dataclass class GdocsStates: - states: dict - service: typing.Any + def __init__(self, states: dict, service: typing.Any): + self.states = states + self.service = service UA = 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_15_7) AppleWebKit/605.1.15 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/26.1 Safari/605.1.15' PLAN_URL_PAT = re.compile(r"^https://(?Pdev.)?planscore.org/plan.html\?(?P[\.\w]+)$") INDEX_URL_FMT = "https://{bucket}.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/{id}/index.json" STACK_BUCKETS = {None: "planscore", "dev.": "planscore--dev"} -ELECTION_FIELDS = tuple(f.name for f in dataclasses.fields(Election)) SPREADSHEET_ID = '1rcYOxrr_bqkQWggCeP8W6eYkofl9_Zk0deHv62ilE8Y' @@ -391,25 +371,17 @@ def upload_new_plan(api_key, plan_name, auth_url, shapefile_url, incumbents): finally: os.unlink(local_shapefile) -def row2election(api_key: str, gdocs: GdocsStates, row: dict) -> typing.Optional[Election]: +def process_state(api_key: str, gdocs: GdocsStates, stateabrev: str, google_state: dict) -> None: """ - Process a 2026 election row, checking if it needs to be updated based on Google Sheet data. + Process a state from Google Sheets, checking if it needs to be updated. + If plan needs updating, uploads new plan and updates Google Sheets. """ - stateabrev = row.get("stateabrev") - plan_url = row.get("url") - - # Look up the state in Google Sheets by abbreviation - google_state = gdocs.states.get(stateabrev) - - if not google_state: - logging.debug(f"No Google state found for {stateabrev}, returning as-is") - return planscore2election(plan_url, row) if plan_url else None - # Check if we should skip this state has_redraw = google_state.get('2026 Redraw', '').strip().upper() == 'Y' filing_deadline_str = google_state.get('Filing Deadline', '').strip() filing_deadline_passed = False + filing_deadline = None if filing_deadline_str: try: filing_deadline = datetime.datetime.strptime(filing_deadline_str, '%Y-%m-%d').date() @@ -418,15 +390,6 @@ def row2election(api_key: str, gdocs: GdocsStates, row: dict) -> typing.Optional except ValueError: logging.debug(f"Could not parse filing deadline: {filing_deadline_str}") - # Decision logic - - # if not has_redraw: - # logging.debug(f"{google_state['State Name']} - no redraw and we don't care about filing deadline, skipping") - # return planscore2election(plan_url, row) if plan_url else None - # if not has_redraw and not filing_deadline_passed: - # logging.debug(f"{google_state['State Name']} - no redraw and filing deadline not passed, skipping") - # return planscore2election(plan_url, row) if plan_url else None - # Check if incumbents have changed current_incumbents, score_date = get_plan_details(google_state.get('PlanScore URL', '')) new_incumbents = google_state.get('Incumbents', '').strip() @@ -436,12 +399,12 @@ def row2election(api_key: str, gdocs: GdocsStates, row: dict) -> typing.Optional logging.debug(f" Current: {current_incumbents}") logging.debug(f" New: {new_incumbents}") - if current_incumbents == new_incumbents and score_date > filing_deadline: + if current_incumbents == new_incumbents and filing_deadline and score_date and score_date > filing_deadline: logging.debug(f"{google_state['State Name']} - incumbents unchanged and {score_date} new enough, skipping") - return planscore2election(plan_url, row) if plan_url else None + return elif current_incumbents == new_incumbents and not filing_deadline_passed: logging.debug(f"{google_state['State Name']} - incumbents unchanged and {score_date} filing deadline not passed, skipping") - return planscore2election(plan_url, row) if plan_url else None + return # Incumbents have changed, need to upload new plan logging.debug(f"{google_state['State Name']} - incumbents changed or {score_date} too old, uploading new plan") @@ -459,86 +422,23 @@ def row2election(api_key: str, gdocs: GdocsStates, row: dict) -> typing.Optional # Update Google Sheet with the new plan URL update_google_sheet_plan_url(gdocs, stateabrev, google_state, new_plan_url) - # Update the row dict to use the new URL - row = dict(row) - row['url'] = new_plan_url - - # Process the new plan to get election data - return planscore2election(new_plan_url, row) - -def planscore2election(plan_url: str, row: dict) -> typing.Optional[Election]: - """Process an existing plan URL to calculate election data""" - if not (plan_match := PLAN_URL_PAT.match(plan_url)): - raise ValueError(plan_url) - - logging.debug(f"Processing plan: {plan_url}") - plan_bucket = STACK_BUCKETS[plan_match.group("stack")] - index_url = INDEX_URL_FMT.format(bucket=plan_bucket, id=plan_match.group("id")) - index_data = json.load(urllib.request.urlopen(index_url)) - - districts = [ - District( - t["Democratic Wins"], - t["Democratic Votes"] / (t["Democratic Votes"] + t["Republican Votes"]), - t.get("US President 2024 - DEM", t["US President 2020 - DEM"]) + t.get("US President 2024 - REP", t["US President 2020 - REP"]), - ) - for t in map(operator.itemgetter("totals"), index_data["districts"]) - ] - state_votes = sum(d.total_votes for d in districts) - - # vote share is turnout-weighted, seat share is not - seat_share = sum(d.dem_wins * 1 / len(districts) for d in districts) - vote_share = sum(d.dem_share * d.total_votes / state_votes for d in districts) - district_values = [(d.dem_wins, d.dem_share, round(d.total_votes)) for d in districts] - efficiency_gap = (seat_share - .5) - 2 * (vote_share - .5) - - return Election( - row.get("cycle"), - row.get("stateabrev"), - row.get("newplan"), - round(efficiency_gap, 3), - row.get("seats"), - row.get("url"), - json.dumps( - [list(map(lambda n: round(n, 3), v)) for v in district_values], - separators=(',', ':'), - ), - ) -def main(api_key: str, credentials_file: str, filename: str): +def main(api_key: str, credentials_file: str): # Load Google Sheets states data logging.debug("Loading Google Sheets states data...") gdocs = load_google_states(credentials_file) logging.debug(f"Loaded {len(gdocs.states)} states from Google Sheets") - with open(filename, "r") as file1: - rows = list(csv.DictReader(file1)) - - logging.info(f"{rows[:3]}, {rows[-3:]}") - - elections = [ - Election(*(row.get(f) for f in ELECTION_FIELDS)) - for row in rows if row.get("cycle") != "2026" - ] - - elections += [ - row2election(api_key, gdocs, row) or Election(*(row.get(f) for f in ELECTION_FIELDS)) - for row in rows if row.get("cycle") == "2026" - ] - - logging.info(f"{elections[:3]}, {elections[-3:]}") + # Iterate over all states in Google Sheets and process each one + for stateabrev, google_state in gdocs.states.items(): + process_state(api_key, gdocs, stateabrev, google_state) - with open(filename, "w") as file2: - out = csv.DictWriter(file2, ELECTION_FIELDS) - out.writeheader() - for election in elections: - out.writerow(dataclasses.asdict(election)) + logging.info("All states processed.") parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() parser.add_argument("api_key") parser.add_argument("credentials_file") -parser.add_argument("filename") if __name__ == "__main__": args = parser.parse_args() - exit(main(args.api_key, args.credentials_file, args.filename)) \ No newline at end of file + exit(main(args.api_key, args.credentials_file)) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/update-ushouse-vote-swings.py b/update-ushouse-vote-swings.py index d361139a..75fe3523 100755 --- a/update-ushouse-vote-swings.py +++ b/update-ushouse-vote-swings.py @@ -37,7 +37,7 @@ } # Shift headers (25 scenarios) -ZERO_HEADER = 'Zero Shift' +ZERO_HEADER = 'No-Swing' SHIFT_HEADERS = ['R+12', 'R+11', 'R+10', 'R+9', 'R+8', 'R+7', 'R+6', 'R+5', 'R+4', 'R+3', 'R+2', 'R+1', ZERO_HEADER, 'D+1', 'D+2', 'D+3', 'D+4', 'D+5', 'D+6', 'D+7', 'D+8', 'D+9', 'D+10', 'D+11', 'D+12'] @@ -313,7 +313,7 @@ def clone_plan_with_swings(api_key: str, plan_id: str, description: str, vote_sw payload = { "id": plan_id, "description": description, - "vote_swings": vote_swings, + "vote_swings": [round(s, 3) for s in vote_swings], "library_metadata": library_metadata, } @@ -693,10 +693,7 @@ def build_state_swings(service, states: dict, district_swings: dict, api_key: st clone_tasks = [] state_rows = [] - # TEMPORARY: Hardcode Illinois, North Carolina, Utah, and Virginia for Stage 3 testing - state_abbrevs = ["IL", "NC", "UT", "VA"] # Will expand to sorted(states.keys()) in later stages - - for abbrev in state_abbrevs: + for abbrev in sorted(states.keys()): state_data = states[abbrev] plan_url = state_data.get('PlanScore URL', '').strip()