diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-salary-sacrifice-cap.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-salary-sacrifice-cap.md index 64adba98b..d9c69566c 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-salary-sacrifice-cap.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/uk-salary-sacrifice-cap.md @@ -64,11 +64,11 @@ PolicyEngine's microsimulation estimates that 4.9 million people make pension co Under baseline policy, total salary sacrifice contributions amount to £22.7 billion. With the cap in place, £13.8 billion in excess contributions would shift to regular employee pension contributions. -The policy is scheduled to take effect from April 2029. PolicyEngine estimates the cap would raise **£3.3 billion** in 2029-30 under our baseline assumptions (employers spread costs, employees maintain pension contributions), compared to the OBR's estimate of £4.9 billion (static) or £4.7 billion (post-behavioural). Revenue estimates vary significantly based on behavioural assumptions: +The policy is scheduled to take effect from April 2029. PolicyEngine estimates the cap would raise **£4.2 billion** in 2029-30 under our baseline assumptions (employers spread costs, employees maintain pension contributions), compared to the OBR's estimate of £4.9 billion (static) or £4.7 billion (post-behavioural). Revenue estimates vary significantly based on behavioural assumptions: -PolicyEngine's baseline estimate of £3.3 billion is 32% below the OBR's static estimate of £4.9 billion. This reflects differences in behavioural assumptions: PolicyEngine's baseline assumes employees maintain their pension contributions (shifting excess to regular schemes) and employers spread costs across all workers, while the OBR's post-behavioural estimate of £4.7 billion may assume greater take-up of taxable cash. +PolicyEngine's baseline estimate of £4.2 billion is 14% below the OBR's static estimate of £4.9 billion. This reflects differences in behavioural assumptions: PolicyEngine's baseline assumes employees maintain their pension contributions (shifting excess to regular schemes) and employers spread costs across all workers, while the OBR's post-behavioural estimate of £4.7 billion may assume greater take-up of taxable cash. ## Distributional analysis @@ -76,11 +76,11 @@ The cap is progressive: lower-income households are largely unaffected while hig -Under the baseline scenario (employers spread costs, employees maintain pension contributions), the top income decile experiences an average 0.65% reduction in disposable income (£200/year), while lower deciles see minimal impact. Toggle between scenarios to see how different behavioural assumptions affect the distributional pattern. +Under the baseline scenario (employers spread costs, employees maintain pension contributions), the top income decile experiences an average reduction in disposable income of approximately £1,900/year, while lower deciles see minimal impact. Toggle between scenarios to see how different behavioural assumptions affect the distributional pattern. ## Conclusion -The cap would raise approximately £3.3 billion annually when it takes effect in April 2029, affecting 3.3 million workers who currently contribute above £2,000. This compares to the OBR's estimates of £4.9 billion (static) or £4.7 billion (post-behavioural). +The cap would raise approximately £4.2-7.8 billion annually when it takes effect in April 2029 depending on behavioural responses, affecting 3.3 million workers who currently contribute above £2,000. This compares to the OBR's estimates of £4.9 billion (static) or £4.7 billion (post-behavioural). The impact is progressive: higher earners experience larger reductions while lower-income households are largely unaffected. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index d9aba2f3e..1c6b09f7f 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -138,7 +138,7 @@ }, { "title": "How a £2,000 salary sacrifice cap would affect workers", - "description": "Capping salary sacrifice pension contributions at £2,000 would raise £3.3-7.6 billion in 2029-30 depending on behavioural responses, with impacts concentrated on higher earners.", + "description": "Capping salary sacrifice pension contributions at £2,000 would raise £4.2-7.8 billion in 2029-30 depending on behavioural responses, with impacts concentrated on higher earners.", "date": "2025-11-27", "tags": ["uk", "policy"], "authors": ["max-ghenis", "vahid-ahmadi"], diff --git a/changelog_entry.yaml b/changelog_entry.yaml index 63555fda9..0adcae729 100644 --- a/changelog_entry.yaml +++ b/changelog_entry.yaml @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ - bump: patch changes: - changed: - - Move ads dashboard route into StaticLayout (shows PE header) + fixed: + - Update UK salary sacrifice cap blog post figures to match chart data (4.2-7.8bn range, 1,900/year top decile impact)