Update strategy-2030.md

docs/vision/strategy-2030.md

@@ -17,31 +17,52 @@ Cardano’s objective for 2030 is to run a secure, interoperable base layer that
 
 1. **Scale and harden the protocol**: maintain 100% mainnet uptime, ship multi-client and post-quantum–ready infrastructure, and integrate L2 interoperability.
 2. **Create robust on-chain demand**: focus on DeFi, RWA, supply chain, and payments, while making Cardano usage “invisible” for users and enterprises.
-3. **Run antifragile on-chain governance**: use DReps, turnout-aware voting, and treasury seasons to resist plutocratic capture and voter fatigue.
-4. **Manage the treasury & network economics actively**: evolve from a passive pool to a yield-generating, multi-asset treasury,ensure L2s return value to L1, and SPOs are economically incentivised to secure the network over the long term.
+3. **Run antifragile on-chain governance**: Engaged DReps, turnout-aware voting, and treasury seasons to resist plutocratic capture and voter fatigue.
+4. **Actively manage the treasury & network economics actively**: evolve from a passive pool to a yield-generating, multi-asset treasury,ensure L2s return value to L1, and SPOs are economically incentivised to secure the network over the long term.
 
-Execution is distributed across Cardano ecosystem entities (Cardano Foundation, IOG, Emurgo, Intersect, SPOs, and funded community teams); this plan defines shared outcomes rather than a single owner.
+Execution is distributed across Cardano various ecosystem entities (Cardano Foundation, IOG, Emurgo, Intersect, SPOs, and funded community teams); this plan defines shared outcomes rather than a single owner.
 
 This strategy framework is divided in core pillars that represent the key areas to work on to achieve our vision.
 
 ## Core Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
 
-These KPIs are network-level and observable. They tie directly to the four levers above.
+KPIs allow us to measure our progress as an ecosystem. They help shape strategy and inform where investments will generate impact, supporting funding decision making.
+Three key KPIs measure Cardano's usage, adoption, and sustainability:
+1. Total Value Locked (TVL)
+2. Monthly transactions
+3. Monthly active users (MAU)
 
-| Area | Metric | current status | How to calculate | 2030 Target | Rationale |
-| ---------------------- | ---------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------ | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
-| Reliability | Monthly (6 epochs) UpTime | 99.98 | Uptime percentage = ((Total time period − Total 5-minute blockless periods) / Total time period) × 100% | 99.98% Uptime (no blockless intervals of 5 minutes or longer across 6 epochs)<br /><br />Reasoning: Cardano block production is modeled as a Poisson process with λ ≈ 1 block / 20 seconds.<br />The probability of producing zero blocks in 5 minutes is effectively zero (≈3×10⁻⁷), therefore any 5-minute gap constitutes a statistically reliable indicator of downtime.<br /><br />Reasoning: ([reference calculation](https://chatgpt.com/share/6929a65f-f8d8-800d-b667-0dfeb6bb05ab))| Maintain best-in-class operational reliability. (Protocol Stability) |
+Progress in these KPIs signals that the chain is achieving product market fit, with sustainable and growing demand for Cardano's services. This confirms we are solving critical real-world problems and delivering value for our community.
+These three KPIs are supported by many additional metrics and sub-indicators that contribute to their measurement. They are also the most commonly used benchmarks across the broader crypto ecosystem, enabling comparison against peers and helping attract additional users and capital.
+
+| Area| Metric | current status | How to calculate | 2030 Target | Rationale|
+| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
+| Adoption | Total Value Locked (TVL)   | $200M | Liquid staking normalization.<br /><br />TVL = Σ locked assets.  | $3B| Capital confidence indicator. |
+| Adoption | Monthly transactions | 800k submitted transactions per month || ≥ 27M submitted transactions per month | Signals broad, recurring on-chain activity.                                                                                                                                                              |
+| Adoption | Monthly Active Users (MAU) | Approximately 100k-300k active wallets per month | Count unique addresses with transactions over 30-day window. | 1M | Measures active ecosystem participation + engagement.<br /><br /> MAU measures number of unique wallets submitting ≥1 transaction per month; does not differentiate human activity vs wallet count. |
+
+We are limited in the number of ‘top level’ KPIs as an ecosystem we can prioritise. Too many and it is difficult to create a clear strategic direction, too few and we risk missing critical indicators across priority areas. As a result we propose the following additional Primary core KPIs. 
+
+
+| Area| Metric | Current Status| How to Calculate | 2030 Target | Rationale|
+| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
+| Reliability | Monthly (6 epochs) UpTime | 99.98 | Uptime percentage = ((Total time period − Total 5-minute blockless periods) / Total time period) × 100% | 99.98% Uptime (no blockless intervals of 5 minutes or longer across 6 epochs)<br /><br /> Reasoning: Cardano block production is modeled as a Poisson process with λ ≈ 1 block / 20 seconds.<br /><br />The probability of producing zero blocks in 5 minutes is effectively zero (≈3×10⁻⁷), therefore any 5-minute gap constitutes a statistically reliable indicator of downtime.<br /><br /> | Maintain best-in-class operational reliability. (Protocol Stability)|
+| Operational resilience | Voting Power distribution of controlling stake | 35 | (total live stake - abstain DRep - NoConfidence DRep)*0.51 > than stake of top 22 DReps | 50% + 1 lovelace effective voting power controlled by > than 22 DReps | Mitigates risk of attacks from colluded DReps |
 | Operational resilience | Alternative full node clients | 1 | | ≥ 2 live, spec-conformant | Reduce single-client risk. |
-| Operational resilience | Client & Infrastructure Diversity | / | Track market share of each client implementation (target: no client >33%). Measure validator distribution across cloud providers vs bare metal. Identify AWS/cloud concentration risks. | No single client >33% | Technical Resilience: Tracks market share of each client implementation with a target of no single client controlling a liveness-threatening share.<br /><br />Market share distribution of client implementations. Target: no single client >33% for liveness protection. |
-| Operational resilience | Multi-dimensional Nakamoto coefficient | 22 | Count controlling entities across multiple vectors.<br /><br />Compute minimum across dimensions: stake, nodes, geography. | 22 (best) | Represents decentralization strength.<br /><br />Minimum number of entities controlling 51% of stake, nodes, geography, infra. |
-| Operational resilience | Voting Power distribution of controlling stake | 35 | (total live stake - abstain DRep - NoConfidence DRep)\*0.51 > than stake of top 22 DReps | 50% + 1 lovelace effective voting power controlled by > than 22 DReps | Mitigates risk of attacks from colluded DReps |
-| Adoption | Monthly submitted transactions | 900k submitted transactions per month |  | ≥ 27M submitted transactions per month  | Signals broad, recurring on-chain activity. |
-| Revenue / adoption | Annual Protocol Revenue | 3.5M ada within the calendar | Annual Protocol Revenue = Submitted Transactions per year \* avg fee per submitted transaction | ≥ 16M ada (assuming an ada value of $5 and a reduction of avg fees over the 4 years from 0.3 ada to 0.05 ada) | This includes all revenue to the protocol (excluding the rewards).<br />The key metric of economic self-sufficiency and utility.<br /><br />(Revenue could come from fees, L1 and L2 services, investments and more) |
-| Adoption | Enterprise integrations | / | / | ≥15 Enterprise level organization (with 5M Annual revenue) with sustained chain activity after 12 months (AKA doing avg 500 transactions per epoch) | Measure success in translating high-assurance design into business adoption. |
-| Governance | DRep participation rate | / | / | \> 70% of active DReps (by stake) vote on 90% or more of governance actions. | Measure the vitality and engagement of the decision-making layer. |
-| Adoption | Monthly active users | Approximately 100k-300k active wallets per month | Count unique addresses with transactions over 30-day window. | 1M | Measures active ecosystem participation + engagement.<br /><br />MAU measures number of unique wallets submitting ≥1 transaction per month; does not differentiate human activity vs wallet count. |
-| Adoption | Total Value Locked (TVL) | $400–500M | Liquid staking normalization.<br />TVL = Σ locked assets. | $3B  | Capital confidence indicator. |
-| Scalability | Throughput capacity per day | 300k transactions per day | ? | 3x current capacity | Tracking scalability of the system to meet adoption KPIs |
+| Revenue / adoption | Annual Protocol Revenue | 3.5M ada within the calendar | Annual Protocol Revenue = Submitted Transactions per year * avg fee per submitted transaction| ≥ 16M ada (assuming an ada value of $5 and a reduction of avg fees over the 4 years from 0.3 ada to 0.05 ada)| This includes all revenue to the protocol (excluding the rewards).<br /><br />The key metric of economic self-sufficiency and utility.<br /><br /> (Revenue could come from fees, L1 and L2 services, investments and more) |
+| Governance| DRep participation rate||% of active DReps (by stake) voting on 90% or more of governance actions| > 70% of active DReps (by stake) vote on 90% or more of governance actions.| Measure the vitality and engagement of the decision-making layer. |
+| Scalability | Throughput capacity per day| 300k transactions per day || 3x current capacity | Tracking scalability of the system to meet adoption KPIs |
+
+### KPI and Metric Strategy
+- The list above is not a complete list of  KPIs. We expect this framework to evolve and mature over time. We recognize that a broader, more complete measurement framework is necessary, including more detailed secondary and tertiary level KPIs. 
+- This initial focus provides the community with immediate KPI’s to support with alignment of treasury  funding decisions while the comprehensive framework is developed. We expect to develop this fuller and more comprehensive set of KPIs for the evolution of the Cardano blockchain in early 2026 and will work closely with the community and the other committees to shape the KPI direction. This will also include developing Marketing KPIs to broaden reach and engagement, drive positive perceptions and bring more users to the chain..
+- As part of the review of KPIs with the community we will also aim to support a strategy on how metrics are more effectively tracked and reported on, including supporting the creation of relevant dashboards.
+
+**A note on terminology**  
+
+***Metrics*** are quantifiable measures that track specific aspects of ecosystem activity. They provide raw data points that can be monitored over time. Examples include transaction count, wallet addresses, smart contract deployments, and fee volumes. Metrics answer the question: "What is happening?"
+
+***Key Performance Indicators*** are a curated subset of metrics that directly measure progress toward strategic objectives. They are actionable signals that drive strategy and decision-making at the highest level. KPIs answer the question: "Are we succeeding in our strategic goals?" and ensure strategic alignment. Typically, KPIs are limited in number to maintain focus, though teams, groups may have their own more detailed KPIs. 
 
 
 ## Pillar 1: Infrastructure & Research Excellence
@@ -83,8 +104,8 @@ Driving widespread, non-speculative utility by focusing on high-value industry v
 | Focus Area | Strategy | Expected Enhancement |
 | :---- | :---- | :---- |
 | **Invisible technology** | Hide wallets, fees, and signing flows where possible. | Lower adoption friction. |
-| **Decentralized identity (SSI)** | Embed SSI into transactions, contracts, and governance for selective privacy and compliance. | Enterprise-ready trust layer. |
-| **Enterprise security & compliance** | Offer formal-methods-backed and SOC-compatible patterns. | Easier enterprise and gov procurement. |
+| **Decentralized identity (SSI)** | Embed decentralized identity solutions (DID) and self sovereign identity (SSI) into transactions, contracts, and governance for selective privacy and compliance. | Enterprise-ready trust layer. |
+| **Enterprise security & compliance** | Offer formal-methods-backed and ISO/SOC, and other industry standard-compatible patterns. | Easier enterprise and gov procurement. |
 
 ### A.3. Developer Experience